Introduction to Daytona Home Sales Market Review
“Are we there yet?” may be the most common question asked to real estate professionals. Recently I updated information about real estate sales in Volusia County. By downloading the Volusia County Property Appraiser’s database and loading it into a series of reports there are a number of things that can be determined. Below you will see some charts and graphs coupled with analysis. Further in the blog, you will see information about the source of the data and it is being used.
Home Sales Data
The blue/green line on the graph shows the average sale price each year from 1970 to 2010. Over this 40 year period, there are clear trends within the several years. You can see the downturn that occurred during the oil crisis of the 70s. There is a downward trend when the General Electric plant closed in the 80s. However, the change in property values from 2000 to 2010 is truly unprecedented.
The graph shows some incredibly obvious information right off the bat. First, we have never experienced anything similar to either the rise or the decline of the market change that took place during the last decade. By looking at the data over a 40 year period it is obvious that there is a stable and impressive increase in property value in the long run. However, the run up that occurred in the first have of the last decade was not only unprecedented but also unsustainable.
The red line is angled to represent a direct pattern of growth from 1970 until 2000 and then to project the growth forward through 2010. That line represents the sustainable growth in property values for 30 years. The growth and subsequent fall return us to the price levels that are sustainable in the area.
Daytona Real Estate Transaction Count
In the second graph the blue/green line that represents average price is overlaid with the number of transactions that occurred each year. It’s obvious that the fluctuations are more relevant with greater fluctuation in general. The strength of the real estate market is more obviously reflected by the demand than by price. The demand dropped to a lower level than it ever had during the previous 30 years. However, the transaction count really returned over the last two year.
When will the real estate market return
The last graph zooms in to show the market from 2006 to 2010. Most importantly, the transaction count has been improving since 2008. At the same time, price declines have slowed dramatically. The bottom of the real estate market was some time ago and you can clearly see the history of the bottom and the change in this graph.
Volusia County Sales Information
The Volusia County Property Appraiser’s system includes all the sales recorded in the County throughout history. Importantly it goes beyond other data sources such as the local Multiple Listing Services (MLS). In Volusia County we have three systems, for example. But it also includes data that would not otherwise be recorded in the MLS such as for sale buy owner information. Of course the quality of the data degrades as you look farther back in time. However, the property appraiser’s data includes a few advantages. The property appraiser is required to look at every single transaction and determine if it is qualified to be compared and used to determine value for other sales. From the comprehensive database, several pieces must be broken out in order to find the relevant, comparable information.
Single Family Homes
To provide comparable information from the 1970s until today we must select a specific property type. In the early 1970s there were very few condominiums available in the Greater Daytona Beach Area. For this comparison the data uses only qualified sales of single family homes. Specifically included are other property types such as conds, vacant land, and multi-family.
Qualified Sales
In addition to the earlier restrictions, the data also only takes into consideration properties that are deemed qualified sales by the property appraiser. The data does not include family sales or multi-parcel sales.
February 18th, 2011 at 4:17 pm
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February 21st, 2011 at 4:56 pm
[...] recently published report shows the incredible fluctuation of sales prices during the decade between 2000-2010. The flattening [...]